RMB exchange rate bidirectional fluctuations are generally robust and more mature foreign exchange markets

[] [Font] [] Since October 29, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has continued to rise.

According to the latest data released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, as of November 12th, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index is to create a new high since December 25, 2015, and the accumulated increase since this year.

  In the author’s view, the recent CFETS RMB exchange rate index has high innovation, mainly three reasons.

First, this is inseparable from my country’s export sustained ultra-expected performance.

In October, the exports calculated in US dollars increased by $ 300.2 billion.

This has been my country’s exports to achieve two-digit growth in the 13th month, which laid the foundation of the recent appreciation of the RMB. Secondly, according to the US dollar, my country’s trade compliance is billions of US dollars in October, which increases% year-on-year, and sets new high in historical records.

The expansion of trade surplus has also strengthened the market’s confidence in the market, driving export enterprises in greater demand, further promoting the RMB exchange rate up fluctuation.

  Finally, time node factors are not negligible. Currently near the end of the year, some business customers will return overseas profits.

The brings demand brought by the seasonal factors also provides support for the RMB exchange rate.

  Since this year, in the international financial market fluctuations, my country’s foreign exchange market has been stable, and the anti-risk ability is significantly enhanced. The RMB exchange rate is two-way fluctuations, the overall stable, the RMB has a stability of the currency than most developed countries and emerging economies.

At the same time, business exchange rate risk management is gradually strengthened. The third quarter of this year, the company’s utilization is long, the order of exchange derivatives such as exchange rate risk is 80% year-on-year, higher than 56 percentage points higher than in the same period bank. This highlights the reform of the "8.11" in 2015, the RMB exchange rate can be more fully, timely and accurately reflect the changes in the international market and foreign exchange supply; at the same time, further confirmation of the foreign exchange bureau Director, spokesperson Wang Chunying’s expression in this year – "A more tough, more mature foreign exchange market has gradually formed." Looking forward to the future, there will be multiple factors to affect the trend of RMB exchange rate, which is the US dollar index, The market is expected to rise hike to the Fed in advance, driving the US dollar index continuously.

On Wednesday (November 17), the US dollar index is once in the market, and the second is the foreign trade situation. As the overseas epidemic mitigation, the trade transfer effect on my country’s exports or will weaken accordingly, the future trade surplus It may be narrowed accordingly; its third is a monetary policy. At present, the global central bank interest rate hike is expected to rise or even land, which may form pressure on the RMB exchange rate. Of course, from a medium and long term, it is still the economic fundamental trend and international income and expenditure in my country. From this year, my country’s economic continued to stabilize recovery, the RMB exchange rate has shown anti-risk capabilities in international financial market fluctuations, and the steady deepening of my country’s exchange rate marketization reform, we have a strong sense, whether it is short-term or medium long term The RMB exchange rate will continue to remain fundamentally stable at reasonable balance. In the object, the market should be objectively viewed by the appreciation or depreciation of the renminbi, and do not have to pay too much attention to the so-called value-of-values. Enterprises should also use the "exchange rate risk neutral" as a long-term concept, based on the main business, reasonably develop risk management strategies.

(Editor: Sun Dan).